please ignore the previous ADSK first line as it improperly said "above"
Autodesk (ADSK) just reported record quarter revenues of $457 million, just under the $457.25 million consensus estimate. It is not providing EPS because of the ongoing options review. ADSK closed up 1% at $27.00 in normal trading, but shares are up 6.4% to $39.35 in after-hours trading. The subscription revenues seem to be the game winner as the guidance seems in-line (although guidance may be conservative because of legal ramifications). ADSK 52-week trading range is $29.56 to $47.25.
There was a huge bright spot in what may be considered a slight beat with in-line guidance. Its subscription (recurring) revenues have now grown to $111 million, about 24% of revenues, and up 50% from last year. That is an impressive feat and has been one of the growth drivers to the company.
Total backlog was $352 million as of October 31, 2006, including $333 million of deferred revenues. Deferred subscription revenues increased $12 million sequentially to $275 million and there was $19 million of unshipped product orders at quarter end. Its DSO (days sales outstanding, or days to get paid!) also fell 1 day to 51 days.
There is also guidance (compared to street estimates) where available. Next quarter guidance: Net revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007 are expected to be between $490 million and $500 million ($495M estimate); following quarter guidance: Net revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 are expected to be approximately flat with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. Fiscal 2007 guidance: For fiscal year 2007, net revenues are expected to be between $1.832 billion and $1.842 billion ($1.84B estimate). Fiscal 2008 guidance: For fiscal year 2008, net revenues are expected to be between $2.075 billion and $2.125 billion ($2.10 Billion estimates).
Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006
Kamis, 16 November 2006
Starbuck's Decaf (SBUX)
Starbuck's missed Wall St.'s revenue target and had poor earnings to boot. Some was due to changes in the company's accounting practices. Investors wanted revenue of $2.02 billion and the coffee retailer did $2 billion.
While the company's long range goal of hitting a total of 30,000 stores worldwide may not be in jeapordy, it may be set back a few days.
Starbuck's shares are off about 6% after hours to just above $37..
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintrye@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
While the company's long range goal of hitting a total of 30,000 stores worldwide may not be in jeapordy, it may be set back a few days.
Starbuck's shares are off about 6% after hours to just above $37..
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintrye@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
Market Wrap (Nov. 16, 2006)
DJIA 12,305.82; Up 54.11 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 2,449.06; Up 6.31 (0.26%)
S&P500 1,399.76; Up 3.19 (0.23%)
10YR-Bond 4.655% Up 0.04
NYSE Volume 2,738,514,000
NASD Volume 2,031,971,000
Today was another record high on the DJIA. We had another drop in Consumer Prices and natural gas innevtories coming out at another surplus helped fall $2.50 to $56.26. We learned of the death of famed economist (socio-economist) Milton Friedman today.
Dell (DELL) was the big shocker as it delayed earnings and said its SEC investigation has now gone to formal. DELL shares fell 2.5% to $25.10, but shares had been down 5% at one point.
Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 3.6% to $17.98 after it its EPS from operations were $0.30 versus $0.31 consensus estimates.
Clear Channel (CCU) rose 3.5% to $35.36 after receiving a $37.60 private equity buyout.
Readers Digest (RDA) rose a sharp 7% to $16.70 after getting a private equity buyout. And who says old media is dead?
Apple (AAPL) rose 1.9% to $85.61 after Cramer on MAD MONEY said the stock is not under any real threat for iPod dominance because of Microsoft's Zune launch and he said the stock is going to $100.00 by year-end.
Time Warner (TWX) rose 1.75% to $20.33 to another 52-week high close on optiosn activity on block volume today.
Irvine Sensores (IRSN) rose an unbelievable 123% to $2.39 after it said it won more than $16 million in new contract wins.
Rambus (RMBS) gained 30% to $21.72 on more speculation of an FTC resolution in its long-standing case.
Zoll Medical (ZOLL) rose a sharp 28% to $53.06 after its profit more than doubled.
The9 Ltd. (NCTY) rose 20% to $28.36 after beating earnings expectations from its Chinese "World of Warcraft" revenues.
Hott Topic (HOTT) rose 17% to $13.04 after beating earnings after yesterday's close.
Allot Communications (ALLT) rose to $13.81 after pricing its IPO at $12.00, above the $9.00 to $11.00 range.
KBR (KBR) rose to $20.75 after pricing its IPO at $17.00, at the top of its $15.00 to $17.00 range.
Hertz Global (HTZ) rose to $15.60 after it priced its IPO at $15.00, under the $16.00 to $18.00 range.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) fell 4.5% to $8.53 after it filed to sell $250 million in mixed securities because of the crummy timing of this need to raise cash. They waited until it was close to the bottom rather than top of a longer-term range.
BEA Systems (BEAS) fell a sharp 16% to $13.13 after missing revenue projections after yesterday's close.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) rose $0.02 to $27.15 after it allocated another $7 Billion for share buybacks.
Lojack (LOJN) fell 4% to $15.51 after its CEO announced he would resign and work in a transition period for the already-named replacement from inside of the company.
Sears Holdinsg (SHLD) fell 5.5% to $169.26 after beating earnings estimates because of an earnings quality issue.
Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006
NASDAQ 2,449.06; Up 6.31 (0.26%)
S&P500 1,399.76; Up 3.19 (0.23%)
10YR-Bond 4.655% Up 0.04
NYSE Volume 2,738,514,000
NASD Volume 2,031,971,000
Today was another record high on the DJIA. We had another drop in Consumer Prices and natural gas innevtories coming out at another surplus helped fall $2.50 to $56.26. We learned of the death of famed economist (socio-economist) Milton Friedman today.
Dell (DELL) was the big shocker as it delayed earnings and said its SEC investigation has now gone to formal. DELL shares fell 2.5% to $25.10, but shares had been down 5% at one point.
Applied Materials (AMAT) fell 3.6% to $17.98 after it its EPS from operations were $0.30 versus $0.31 consensus estimates.
Clear Channel (CCU) rose 3.5% to $35.36 after receiving a $37.60 private equity buyout.
Readers Digest (RDA) rose a sharp 7% to $16.70 after getting a private equity buyout. And who says old media is dead?
Apple (AAPL) rose 1.9% to $85.61 after Cramer on MAD MONEY said the stock is not under any real threat for iPod dominance because of Microsoft's Zune launch and he said the stock is going to $100.00 by year-end.
Time Warner (TWX) rose 1.75% to $20.33 to another 52-week high close on optiosn activity on block volume today.
Irvine Sensores (IRSN) rose an unbelievable 123% to $2.39 after it said it won more than $16 million in new contract wins.
Rambus (RMBS) gained 30% to $21.72 on more speculation of an FTC resolution in its long-standing case.
Zoll Medical (ZOLL) rose a sharp 28% to $53.06 after its profit more than doubled.
The9 Ltd. (NCTY) rose 20% to $28.36 after beating earnings expectations from its Chinese "World of Warcraft" revenues.
Hott Topic (HOTT) rose 17% to $13.04 after beating earnings after yesterday's close.
Allot Communications (ALLT) rose to $13.81 after pricing its IPO at $12.00, above the $9.00 to $11.00 range.
KBR (KBR) rose to $20.75 after pricing its IPO at $17.00, at the top of its $15.00 to $17.00 range.
Hertz Global (HTZ) rose to $15.60 after it priced its IPO at $15.00, under the $16.00 to $18.00 range.
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) fell 4.5% to $8.53 after it filed to sell $250 million in mixed securities because of the crummy timing of this need to raise cash. They waited until it was close to the bottom rather than top of a longer-term range.
BEA Systems (BEAS) fell a sharp 16% to $13.13 after missing revenue projections after yesterday's close.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) rose $0.02 to $27.15 after it allocated another $7 Billion for share buybacks.
Lojack (LOJN) fell 4% to $15.51 after its CEO announced he would resign and work in a transition period for the already-named replacement from inside of the company.
Sears Holdinsg (SHLD) fell 5.5% to $169.26 after beating earnings estimates because of an earnings quality issue.
Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006
HP Earnings: Revenue Growth Light (HPQ)
HP announced earnings after the close. Revenue rose only 7% to $24.6 billion. Non-GAAP operating income rose from $1.5 billion in the quater a year ago to $1.9 billion. Desktop sales were flat while notebook unit sales rose 24%. Revenue at the imaging and printing unit rose 7%.
Enterprise storage and server revenue rose 4% to $4.7 billion. And, services revenue rose 5%.
Looking at the results, Paul Meeks, a hardware analyst interviews on CNBC, believes that the results only merit a share price of $40 to $41, which is where the stock trades now.
The forecast for the next quarter is for revenue to be in the $24.1 to $24.3 billion range and for the next fiscal $97 billion.
While revenue and EPS were slightly ahead of Wall St. estimates, the figures hardly constitute a blow out quarter. After rising 40% this year, the shares may be taking a pause.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
Enterprise storage and server revenue rose 4% to $4.7 billion. And, services revenue rose 5%.
Looking at the results, Paul Meeks, a hardware analyst interviews on CNBC, believes that the results only merit a share price of $40 to $41, which is where the stock trades now.
The forecast for the next quarter is for revenue to be in the $24.1 to $24.3 billion range and for the next fiscal $97 billion.
While revenue and EPS were slightly ahead of Wall St. estimates, the figures hardly constitute a blow out quarter. After rising 40% this year, the shares may be taking a pause.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
Cramer Thumbs Down on Pepsi (PEP); Positive on NYMEX IPO Again
On today's STOP TRADING segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer started on the snack topic.
Cramer said he is still anti-Pepsi (PEP) because of the snackfood business. Cramer said that Pepsi did address his comments, but the fat wars will clip their wings. Cramer said it is too little too late. He thinsk Pepsi (PEP) could fall to $55 (from $61.80 now). He said they aren't sitting still, but their 20-times earnings multiple could get cut down to 18-times earnings. Cramer said that from the May ramp you still don't want to go back into it.
NYMEX is going to price tonight. He said again that he would still pay up $20 for the stock after the IPO price.
Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006
Cramer said he is still anti-Pepsi (PEP) because of the snackfood business. Cramer said that Pepsi did address his comments, but the fat wars will clip their wings. Cramer said it is too little too late. He thinsk Pepsi (PEP) could fall to $55 (from $61.80 now). He said they aren't sitting still, but their 20-times earnings multiple could get cut down to 18-times earnings. Cramer said that from the May ramp you still don't want to go back into it.
NYMEX is going to price tonight. He said again that he would still pay up $20 for the stock after the IPO price.
Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006
A Tribute to Milton Friedman
There are numerous media reports today of the passing away of Milton Friedman, perhaps the greatest and most influential economist of the modern era.
There are genuinely too many ways to describe and too many things to properly credit him for. These are just some of the things I would credit him for, yet it is probably a disservice to him to keep the list so short:
Nobel Prize winner......
One of the greatest modern economists, if not THE greatest of modern economists......
Will have more name recognition as our time becomes history than Alan Greenspan could even aspire for......
Laissez-faire advocate......
Famous economic author......
Proponent of a more consumption tax basis.....
The reviver of money supply as the tool to increase or decrease economic output.....
Credited as one of the large proponents of free floating current exchange rates.....
Involved in the move toward changing military from a draft system to a volunteer for hire system.....
Even tied to the dropping of the gold standard to a market standard (I recall it as something like "money is worth whatever people think it is worth").....
In a summary, Milton Friedman will be missed. If any foreign government wanted to instill economic changes in the last 3 decades, Milton Friedman was at the top of the list of economists that would be used for consultation. This man transcended modern politics and was respected by many regardless of their political views.
Not all of his theories were loved, but whatever he said was listened to closely and evaluated before any criticism could be handily thrown back. If any of my credits to him are not factual, it is memory errors on my part. I cannot pay enough credit he is worthy of regardless of how much or how little I could say about him. His economic theories will be read about and used for future generations throughout the world.
Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006
There are genuinely too many ways to describe and too many things to properly credit him for. These are just some of the things I would credit him for, yet it is probably a disservice to him to keep the list so short:
Nobel Prize winner......
One of the greatest modern economists, if not THE greatest of modern economists......
Will have more name recognition as our time becomes history than Alan Greenspan could even aspire for......
Laissez-faire advocate......
Famous economic author......
Proponent of a more consumption tax basis.....
The reviver of money supply as the tool to increase or decrease economic output.....
Credited as one of the large proponents of free floating current exchange rates.....
Involved in the move toward changing military from a draft system to a volunteer for hire system.....
Even tied to the dropping of the gold standard to a market standard (I recall it as something like "money is worth whatever people think it is worth").....
In a summary, Milton Friedman will be missed. If any foreign government wanted to instill economic changes in the last 3 decades, Milton Friedman was at the top of the list of economists that would be used for consultation. This man transcended modern politics and was respected by many regardless of their political views.
Not all of his theories were loved, but whatever he said was listened to closely and evaluated before any criticism could be handily thrown back. If any of my credits to him are not factual, it is memory errors on my part. I cannot pay enough credit he is worthy of regardless of how much or how little I could say about him. His economic theories will be read about and used for future generations throughout the world.
Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006
How Many Times Will Applied Materials Call the Bottom?
By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat
Last month we wrote a piece asking someone (anyone) to tell Applied Materials (AMAT) CEO Mike Splinter there’s a slowdown coming for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Apparently someone gave him the message, but he is taking it only half-heartedly.
According to TheStreet.com:
Splinter said he expects Applied’s silicon business to grow by more than 10% in fiscal 2007, outpacing the broader industry.But executives warned of a “modest pullback” among customers in the current quarter.
Applied projected that sales will decline 5% to 10% sequentially in its fiscal first quarter. That suggests a revenue range of $2.41 billion to $2.28 billion, below the average analyst expectation of $2.46 billion.
When we wrote our plea for intervention, we noted that Mike Splinter called the bottom of the last slowdown for about 8 consecutive quarters, so what should we expect? Which brings us to a new (albeit slow-paced) drinking game. From now until there is actually a bottom in semiconductor equipment orders we will take a shot each time Splinter suggests that orders have/will bottom in the current/next quarter.
The author may hold a position in the securities discussed.
The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.
http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/
Last month we wrote a piece asking someone (anyone) to tell Applied Materials (AMAT) CEO Mike Splinter there’s a slowdown coming for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Apparently someone gave him the message, but he is taking it only half-heartedly.
According to TheStreet.com:
Splinter said he expects Applied’s silicon business to grow by more than 10% in fiscal 2007, outpacing the broader industry.But executives warned of a “modest pullback” among customers in the current quarter.
Applied projected that sales will decline 5% to 10% sequentially in its fiscal first quarter. That suggests a revenue range of $2.41 billion to $2.28 billion, below the average analyst expectation of $2.46 billion.
When we wrote our plea for intervention, we noted that Mike Splinter called the bottom of the last slowdown for about 8 consecutive quarters, so what should we expect? Which brings us to a new (albeit slow-paced) drinking game. From now until there is actually a bottom in semiconductor equipment orders we will take a shot each time Splinter suggests that orders have/will bottom in the current/next quarter.
The author may hold a position in the securities discussed.
The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.
http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/
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