Rabu, 01 November 2006

Pfizer: When Analysts Disagree (PFE)

Pfizer announced that its experimental drug for lowering cholesterol also raises blood pressure. The clogged arteries may not kill customers, but the high blood pressure may.

Prudential put out a note on the problem saying that does not think "it will effect the overall risk versus benefit of the drug in the long run."

Goldman Sachs had a different take: "The concerns about blood pressure risk with torcetrapib will be reinforced by these data, however preliminary the data are."

The market seemed to side with Goldman, as Pfizer's shares dropped from a price of $27.22 on Monday to an intraday low of $26.44 yesterday.

The problem that Pfizer has with torcetrapib reflects a much larger concern in the market. As patents on the large money makers at Big Pharma expire, moving some share to generic drug makers, the larger companies must come up with new, patented products.

IMS Health, a research firm, says that $23 billion worth of drugs will go "off patent" this year based on the annual sales of the products. Another $16 billion worth move out of the patented category next year.

Pfizer's new cholesterol drug may be having trouble, but that could be the least of the company's problems.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Dell's Big Upgrade (DELL)(HPQ)

Dell's stock was upgraded yesterday. It was a damn poor ungrade at that. UBS moved the stock from "reduce" to "neutral". But, for desperate Dell shareholders, even the smalles bone is better than starving. With a new price target of $25 from the investment bank, up from $20, the stock rose over 4% to $24.32. It is always nice to hit that new target the first day.

Dell is still in trouble. Its share price was over $41 in July 2005.

In the third quarter of 2006, Gartner figures show that Hewlett-Packard passed Dell in worldwide PC shipments. HP's share grew from 16.1% to 17.2%. Dell's share fell from 17.9% to 17.2%. The next three companies is worldwide PC shipments, Lenovo, Acer, and Toshiba, all showed market share improvement over the period.

Dell, beset by poor customer service and an a resurgent HP has still showed no signs that it can become the company that it was when its shares rose from $1.50 in mid-1996 to $42 in 2005.

For Dell, the past may not be prologue.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own shares in companies that he writes about.

The iPod Gets Targeted, Again (AAPL)(MFST)(T)

Cingular, the big cellphone company controlled by AT&T, is about to launch a music download service aimed at the iPod. The wireless company actually has some formidable partners like Yahoo! Music, who see this as a chance to move into a market dominated by iTunes.

Of course, Cingular can add itself to a long line of companies that want a piece of the market that is dominated by Apple's 60 million iPods. The largest threat may come from the new Microsoft Zune, simply because the big software company can put almost unlimited marketing money behind the product.

Oddly, Cingular also has 60 million subsribers. Obviously almost none of them use the company's phones for music downloads, but Cingular does have the options of offering downloads to both the phone and to AT&T's new home entertainment set-top boxes. A "double play" as it were.

Apple may keep its strangle-hold on the music download market, but it has never been faced by such a large number of well-heeled competitors.

If Apple wants to keep its share, it may come at the price of reduced fees for downloads. If so, it is margins that may suffer instead of iPod count.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Boeing In Molasses (BA)

Investors might assume that when a company’s chief competitor folds its tent, the market share in the industry would move from the vanquished to the victor. Not so with Boeing. At least not yet.

Boeing has not received any major orders for its new jumbo plane, the 747-8, despite a slew of problems with the Airbus 380, its new super-jumbo product.

A number of Airbus customers, lead by Emirate Airlines, has expressed severe doubts about whether they will stick with the Airbus 380, but where are the orders for the competing Boeing product?

Boeing is faced with some measure of doubt about whether it can take advantage of this situation, or, if Airbus can hold customers, even with a late delivery schedule.

Oddly enough, Boeing is beginning to beat Airbus in the market. for slightly smaller intercontinental aircraft. It has broken a key account in South America, TAM of Brazil, by selling it the new 777. Previously, the airline bought from Airbus. The 777 and new Boeing Dreamliner have had significant worldwide success in this market segment.

But, the orders in the super-jumbo category are not coming to Boeing. It may be one reason that shares in the US aircraft manufacturer sit at under $80, down from a 52-week high of nearly $90.

Big plane order, big stock price?

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Media Digest 11/1/2006 Reuters, Wall Street Journal, New York Times

Stocks: (SNE)(MO)(T)(AAPL)(PFE)(BA)

According to Reuters, Sony will begin to sell the world's lightest notebook in December in a bid for the business market.

Reuters writes that an appeal judge stayed a rackettering charge against tobacco companies that he been set by a lower court. The basis of the original claim was that the cigarette companies had concealed the health risks of smoking for several decades.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Cingular will launch a music service for its cell phones with Yahoo! Music and several other companies.

Reuters writes that AT&T will expand its Homezone internet and satellite TV service. The product is an alternative to the companies fiber to the home service which is available in a limited number of markets.

Reuters also writes that Oricon has quit the music download business in Japan, driven out of the market by the iPod.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Pfizer announced that its experimental drug that boosts good cholesterol also raises blood pressure, putting the future of the treatment in doubt.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Boeing received an order from Brazilian airline TAG for 777 aircraft breaking Airbus's hold on the carrier.

The Wall Street Journal writes that P&G's earnings rose 33% fueled by sales of its premium product lines.

The New York Times reports that CVS is in talks to buy Caremark, the largest drug middleman, for $21 billion.

The New York Times also reports that Kodak posted a $37 million loss, another red quarter in its effort to migrate its business to a digital platform.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Asia Markets 11/1//2006 PCCW, HSBC, Japan Tobacco Up, Softbank Down

Stocks: (CAJ)(FUJ)(HMC)(NIPNY)(NTT)(SNE)(TM)(CHL)(CN)(HBC)(PCW)

Markets in Asia were mixed with the Hang Seng up sharply.

The Nikkei was off .2% to 16,375. Canon was up .6% to 6310. Casio was up 2.6% to 2425. Fuji Film was up 2.5% to 4450. Honda was down .2% to 4130. Japan Tobacco was up 4.7% to 534000. NEC was up .7% to 606. NTT was down .2% to 588000. Sharp was up 1% to 2105. Softbank was down 4.9% to 2435. Sony was down 1.2% to 4790. Toyota was flat at 6930. Yahoo Japan was up .7% to 45800.

The Hang Seng was up .7% to 18,454. Cathay Pacific was up .7% to 17.1. China Mobile was up .6% to 63.55. China Netcom was down .6% to 13.74. HSBC was up 1.3% to 148.7. PCCW was up 1.5% to 4.84.

The KOSPI was up .7% to 1,374.

The Straits Times was up 1% to 2,728.

The Shanghai Composite was up 1% to 1,856.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre

Fine Capital Raises Stake in Radio One (ROIAK), ValueVision Media (VVTV) and Carmike Cinemas (CKEC)

From 13D Tracker

In a 13D filing, Fine Capital disclosed it raised its stake in Radio One Inc. (Nasdaq: ROIAK) to 5.9% (5.1 million shares). This is up from the 1.2 million shares stake the firm disclosed in a quarterly filing with regulators.

In an amended 13D filing, Fine Capital also disclosed it raised its stake in ValueVision Media, Inc. (Nasdaq: VVTV) to 6.4% (2.43 million shares). This is up from the 5.11% stake (1.9 million shares) the firm disclosed in a past filing.

In an amended 13D filing. Fine Capital also disclosed it raised its stake in Carmike Cinemas Inc. (Nasdaq: CKEC) to 8.3% (1.05 million shares). This is up from the 976K shares stake the firm disclosed in a quarterly filing with regulators.

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/